Predictions for the next 10 years

Back in 1999 I went to a conference at the Field Museum in Chicago called The Next 20 Years (sponsored by ZDNet, I still have the button that says Believe in Technology).

Now that we’re rolling over the odometer to 2010 I can honestly say that none of the predictions about string theory have come true.

It was an interesting idea though, to think about what is possible now and in the future and speculate in ways that may inspire people to do more, make things better and improve life.

I have been thinking a lot about this decade ending in the last few weeks and aside from an obvious comment about how blindingly fast it went by, I’m skipping the recap and these are some thoughts for the next ten to twenty years.

Disclaimer: These are just my ideas as one person, who analyzes things for a living, and I don’t have a lot of data to prove any of it. Take it with a grain of salt or as entertainment only.

1. Photo Recognition will be big. And I am not talking about face recognition software. But with smartphones we mostly have decent cameras at our disposal that are connected to the internet 24/7. I have been thinking I’d like to be able to redeem the coke-points my husband collects by snapping a picture of the cap rather than entering the number on a form online (boring and slow). This is the exact stuff that QR code readers are used for that work for UPS tracking and a whole bunch of other applications. Expect them to be used as the new coupons, contests, offline-online gaming and a whole bunch of other stuff. Then maybe by the time all that is common place facial recognition of images will be working online.

2. You will probably work in an industry that does not exist yet. Continuing education is a must. I say this because my life is an example. I work in Online Marketing and data tracking for ad agencies and this didn’t exist as a job or a technology available to most companies in 1999. I have to make sure I spend time learning on the job and off the job each year because things change a lot. This does not make having a family easy and we have no idea if we will do that as a result, but it means that you have to be curious about new stuff and be willing to investigate it and you may end up the local expert when you’re the only one with that knowledge. And learn a lot of math.

3. Taxes will go up. All this BS about lowering taxes to stimulate business and rich people spending will go away since we can’t fund the programs required, can’t borrow any more as a government and we would still have the lowest taxes for those rich people to pay when compared to other developed economies. Interest rates and inflation may follow, and of course oil prices crunching a lot of people out of the middle class. Someone will finally do the math proving that investment in hiring new people at a company and creating jobs is inversely related to lowering taxes on the rich and everyone else.

4. There will be a whole new batch of media mavens that we listen to and we will like them because they are curators not experts. No one person will be able to create enough content or be syndicated to as many channels, mediums and messages as would be possible in this fragmented media world. The people you will look to for advice are blogging now, looking at thousands of sources of information, knowing how to process it, evaluate what is good-bad-meaningless and just filter down to the good stuff. We need people like this because the big media push to produce new stuff 24/7/365 is too much for one person to go through and we all still have jobs/families/houses to attend to. And not everyone wants to spend every day plugged into a screen reading constantly. We just want those wow, aha moments. Eventually maybe this 1000 cable channels, commercials every 10 minutes, 100 blog posts a day, constant content model will streamline due to lack of popularity of most of it (no ROI) but as there is more digital space available someone will put something on it, with no guarantee of quality because people seem to randomly stumble upon things still and listen/watch/interact with amusement/laziness/procrastination of their day job. 

5. Expect more digital sensors everywhere. And this could mean in our clothing, in our fridges, on the roads, in our homes. There is a lot of bandwidth for transmitting data and ways are improving for processing data and analyzing it (without human intervention, or programming needed). I foresee more real-time data on traffic and alternate routes in my car guided by my voice requests (like Knight Rider’s Kit?). I foresee clothing measuring weight and texting me that I shouldn’t eat any more calories today. I foresee my fridge telling me the milk has gone bad again and there is a cracked egg leaking all over it. We may spend all day responding to automated messages. These may be an upgrade fee kind of thing but I think at some point the regular cost will include it because the data will be so valuable and targetable for marketers. The recent privacy discussions prove that people are becoming more aware of ad tracking as well as digital capabilities and the younger generations don’t want to go back to a time without it. But we do need better security options for this to work or an opt in policy for managing what companies know and how we want to get/share/target this info.

6. We’re going to get a whole lot more competition from China, South America and Africa for jobs. Companies are going there for operations now and not just to supply their own regions with goods and services. All the Bill & Melinda Gates (plus Oprah, Warren Buffet & That Facebook guy too) funding health/education programs in Africa will create a continent of healthy people who have jobs that used to be here related to their natural resources and possibly other areas as well. China will continue to be a leader in growth and the US needs to define itself. I always wonder why there is such an emphasis on making sure all the other countries have the help they need to solve their problems by these foundations and not the ones with people starving/not getting educated or employed in the USA. Also Immigration, population growth and birth rates in the US will all drop by 2020. (based on what I saw from the census in 2010)

7. The market will continue to be tumultuous. Up, down, sideways. It isn’t connected to real people or the economy as we know it anymore. We’re not sure how to gauge it or if it will make any positive growth in 10 years. With higher interest rates in 2012-2013 CDs may be the hot investment again.

That is it for now, but I may have more ideas later. One thing is for sure, let’s get out there and party like it’s 1999.

Wake Up WalMart – Chinese food product recall update

I just got this information in an email from Wake Up WalMart and wanted to pass it along because more people should know about what lengths WalMart will go to in order to make more profit. Nothing is sacred, so don’t spend your money there if you want to have any control over our U.S. Economy at all:

Wal-Mart is the #1 importer of Chinese goods. So, after the spree of high-profile recalls and outright bans on dangerous Chinese products, wouldn’t it be logical for Wal-Mart to take the offensive against unsafe imported goods? Shouldn’t Wal-Mart stand up for the safety of American consumers?

Wouldn’t you?

The truth is that Wal-Mart is putting profits over people – again – by blocking laws requiring disclosure of where food comes from. Instead of looking out for consumer safety, Wal-Mart is watching its own bottom line.

That’s why we put together a new ad to expose the truth about Wal-Mart and China.

Click here to watch our new ad and send it to five friends:

http://www.wakeupwalmart.com/feature/foodsafety

Even among nations, Wal-Mart is China’s sixth largest trading partner: it buys more Chinese goods than industrial giants like Germany and Britain. This gives Wal-Mart the power to demand safer products from its Chinese suppliers. Unfortunately, it has demanded nothing more than lower prices, and has tried to cover up the consequences of its race to the bottom.

As consumers, we have the right to know that the products we buy are safe. Don’t let irresponsible corporations like Wal-Mart cut us out of the loop. Please watch our new ad today, and send it to five friends:

http://www.wakeupwalmart.com/feature/foodsafety

The more people learn the truth about Wal-Mart, the more public pressure grows for Wal-Mart to change.

You – together with more than 402,000 fellow supporters of WakeUpWalMart.com – have the power to make Wal-Mart put people first.

Amidst seemingly endless recalls of dangerous products, Wal-Mart has tried to keep American consumers in the dark.

Let’s shine a light.

http://www.wakeupwalmart.com/feature/foodsafety

Thanks for all that you do,

The Team
WakeUpWalMart.com

Kodak drops Olympic Sponsorship After Beijing 2008

The 2008 Beijing Olympics are less than a year away. NBC is shaking in their boots though because so many advertisers are baling out right after and have probably reduced their advertising and commercial media spend on this upcoming 2008 Olympic Games. A few things seem to have changed with the Olympics over the past 10-15 years. They used to be the talk of the town and what everyone was watching each night on television for 2 weeks. Now we are not so sure where the Olympics fall in popularity in the U.S. Today they announced that Kodak along with GM and probably a few more United States companies that aren’t as popular, won’t be advertising in the Olympics after the Bejing 2008 Games. Here are several reasons why I think this evolutionary media and company changeover is happening:

1. The Olympic Mystique is waning. In a world of video games, social networking and texting these big deal once every 4 year Games that an athlete works their entire life for somehow seem disconnected. To work for that long on something and not get paid is somehow against our current consumer culture’s ideals. If you work that long you should surely get a Million dollar contract and a promotional deal with Nike right? The “for the love of the sport and glory of winning to bring peace to the world” idea isn’t really that popular with today’s youth or yuppies. They believe in sell to your neighbor, network with your friends and only work towards one goal: Money. So the Olympics are just not relevant anymore and somehow boring.

2. The evening entertainment options for people now are fragmented and overwhelming. Before you could watch TV (5 channels) or go out to dinner and a movie, listen to the radio, read a book or talk on the phone. An example of a simple 1980′s night. Now in 2007 you could do all those things plus, go online, email, text, IM, blog, twitter, MySpace/Facebook, watch dvds, DVR, Tivo, download something to watch illegally, listen to satellite radio, NPR, Google, read and comment on online news, watch cable’s any number of billions of channels, talk on the cell phone, listen to CDs, your iPod, choose new music on Itunes, go to a virtual world like second life or WoW, play video games on your TV or online, or possibly several of these combined. You can see why kids have such trouble sitting down and studying with a book these days. You can also see why the 1980′s seemed quaint and the 1950′s seemed unthinkable. People have so much selection to choose from, they just switch entertainment as soon as they get bored and which ever gets the excitement going wins. The Olympics haven’t really been able to capture the excitement for a while now.

3. The face of American Business is changing. Companies that manufacture and produce actual products in America are dying. That is just the way it is. Our Japanese competitors were formidable in the 1980′s and Our Chinese competitors in the 90′s and 00′s are killing us softly. Notice that Bank of America will be Advertising in the Olympics and GM and Kodak won’t. No American company can afford to manufacture anything in America anymore and be a world power. We’ve gotten too rich and demanding as employees (especially executives), and it’s too expensive to manufacture here. If a company transfers production to Chinese factories (for cheaper labor to be competitive) by default they teach the Chinese companies how to do their work and run the business. And then they Chinese have been known to start their own company and take over. There is a conscious effort by the Chinese to take US knowledge to build businesses in China and bring greatness and world economic power back to China like it used to have centuries ago. (from the book One Billion Customers) Hosting the Beijing Olympics is part of that Grand Plan to showcase how modern and westernized they are now while they win all the medals. The U.S. on the other hand seems to not really plan for the future, and doesn’t see that we are being put out of business. So, companies like Kodak and GM can’t advertise in the Olympics because they can’t afford to anymore, they are shrinking companies that are being beat out of the market at every turn. It is sad that we will all be driving Japanese and Chinese cars and using Chinese and Japanese cameras made in Singapore, Nepal and Malaysia soon and we won’t have any jobs here because we don’t produce anything. Manufacturing is power and we have given that up for big profits short term manufacturing in China and long term business loss and job loss here in America. The executives and board members that have decided that for this country should be put in Jail. The damage they have done to the U.S. Economy for their own personal gain is disgusting.

What groceries people buy…

Last weekend I was at the Jewel food store and I was waiting in a long line with all the other working people who had the 2 day weekend to get all their shopping and household chores finished and I couldn’t help but notice what other people were buying. I get picked on a fair amount among friends and relatives for not knowing how to cook. I can boil and egg, make fried eggs, scrambled eggs, an omlette, pancakes, french toast and bake cookies but that’s about it. If it’s not for breakfast or with an egg I probably can’t cook it. Especially if it involves meat and no grill. I am the kind of person who thinks that putting a frozen lasagna in the oven for a hour is both cooking and stressful because I am not really sure how to operate my oven. (although I bought this place 6 years ago)

What I was suprised to find was that it looks like I am not the only one who occupies this category of shopper. And I wonder if I am this way because I want to be, and I find things that are no-cook to support my needs? Or if I was driven this direction by the prepared foods movement that all the food manufacturing companies have invented and deposited in my grocery store? The age old chicken or egg question?

As I looked around at the people’s carts in line around me I saw a lot of similar things to what I had in my cart. Bread and sandwich makings, salad vegetables, frozen vegetables, frozen lean cuisine, yogurt, fruit like apples, grapes and peaches. Sports drinks, mostly by people who look like they haven’t played a sport in at least 10 years, packaged snacks, granola bars, chips, dips, soda, milk and cereal. None of which require any cooking at all.

Where was the Martha Stewart clone with the flour, eggs, paprika, spices, sugar, rare vegetables, fresh meat and freshly grown herbs? Isn’t that what they put in the grocery store commericals and print ads??

So, we still have that image of a grocery store as a place to buy raw ingredients but we don’t actually buy them. Why don’t they advertise grocery stores as no-cook grocery stores? That would be a niche for people like me. Nothing for me that isn’t coming out of a cardboard box please. Oh right, those stores are called convienient stores.

I wonder if it is our societal laziness and procrastination that leads us to this place where we consume foods manufactured with ingredients from China (which has no FDA regulations) and consume additives that we can’t pronounce while trusting the agribusiness and food manufacturing companies the whole time. We really have no idea what the effect will be on the lifespan of our generation who was raised on Chef Boyardee rather than Chef Mom the cook. Will average expected lifespans shorten? Will we all shrivel into a lump of red number 5?

I am not sure, but if I can be a Martha Stewart fan and not know how to cook a chicken to save my life it is possible that at some point the grocery stores won’t carry the ingredients anymore and only pre-prepared foods. I think sometimes that living more organic and less processed would be good for me and for our country as a whole, but alas, I have no idea how to do that and working 50 hrs a week doesn’t really allow for a cooking class. So I guess I am not going to find out…

Fight WalMart Killing America

I am pretty anti-walmart. I never shop there, and the few times I have been there I have been pretty dissapointed in the store. But what is more dissapointing is how they hurt the American Economy by putting small businesses out of business, killing the economy in small towns, underpaying and underinsuring their workers while over working them, and buying the vast majority of their goods from China. I realize now that this is not just a WalMart phenomenon. Even the well liked Target buys a lot from China. So does every store you can think of. If I tried to not buy anything from china, I wouldn’t have anything to buy. I have been looking at labels more and putting stuff back that has the made in China mark on it, but it is hard. Its cheap and affordable and WalMart knows that this is the drug that americans are addicted to; Cheap Stuff. So in favor of our own economy and job in the USA, we should try and buy less form China and reduce the urge to buy lots of stuff. And here is a good site about the walmart fight: http://www.wakeupwalmart.com/ Check it out and sign up on their email list for updates.